Title: A model for risk minimisation on water resource usage failure

Authors: Laureano F. Escudero, Juan F. Monge

Addresses: Dept. de Estadistica e Investigacion Operativa, Universidad Rey Juan Carlos, Mostoles, Madrid, Spain. ' Centro de Investigacion Operativa, Universidad Miguel Hernandez, Elche Alicante, Spain

Abstract: We present a framework for solving the strategic problem of assigning transboundary water resources to demand centres under uncertainty in the water exogenous inflow in the reservoirs and other segments of the basin system along the time horizon. The functional to maximise is the probability of satisfying different targets on the stored water and different demands over a set of scenarios. A scenario tree-based scheme is used to represent the Deterministic Equivalent Model (DEM) of the stochastic mixed 0-1 programme with complete recourse. The constraints are modelled by a splitting variable representation via scenarios and, so, a Stochastic Integer Programming (SIP) scheme can be used to exploit the excess probability functional structure as well as the non-anticipativity constraints for the water assignment.

Keywords: transboundary water resources; uncertainty; SIP; stochastic integer programming; probability functional; risk minimisation; risk management.

DOI: 10.1504/IJRAM.2008.022134

International Journal of Risk Assessment and Management, 2008 Vol.10 No.4, pp.386 - 403

Published online: 19 Dec 2008 *

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