Title: Agent-based modelling of energy infrastructure transitions

Authors: E.J.L. Chappin, G.P.J. Dijkema

Addresses: Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, Delft University of Technology, P.O. Box 5015, 2600 GA, Delft, The Netherlands. ' Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, Delft University of Technology, P.O. Box 5015, 2600 GA, Delft, The Netherlands

Abstract: Shaping energy transitions not only requires technical system innovation and redesign but also new policies, regulations, Research and Development (R&D) and investment strategies – a transition assemblage. Transition management thus equates to designing and implementing such an assemblage. Agent-Based Models (ABMs) may be used for ex-ante assessment of transition assemblage alternatives. To help determine whether the design of a particular model is fit for its purpose, we have developed a typology. Three models were assessed: 1) a model on the impact of CO₂ policy on the power production sector; 2) a model on the transition of the global Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) infrastructure; 3) a model on the imminent transition caused by the arrival of Light-Emitting Diode (LED) lighting systems. All three models can be used to compare transition assemblage alternatives and could be adapted to assess regulatory adaptability.

Keywords: agent-based modelling; ABM; energy infrastructures; energy modelling; energy transitions; transition management; power generation; carbon policies; LNG market; consumer lighting; agent-based systems; multi-agent systems; MAS; liquefied natural gas; LNG infrastructure; light-emitting diodes; LED lighting; critical infrastructures.

DOI: 10.1504/IJCIS.2010.031070

International Journal of Critical Infrastructures, 2010 Vol.6 No.2, pp.106 - 130

Published online: 20 Jan 2010 *

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