Title: Potential use of transport and dispersion model output to supplement Allied Tactical Publication-45 hazard area prediction templates

Authors: Nathan Platt; Leo Jones

Addresses: Institute for Defense Analyses, 4850 Mark Center Drive, Alexandria, VA 22311-1882, USA ' Institute for Defense Analyses, 4850 Mark Center Drive, Alexandria, VA 22311-1882, USA

Abstract: Allied Tactical Publication-45(C) is the current US and NATO command doctrine for Nuclear, Chemical and Biological (NBC) events. ATP-45 is designed to warn military populations of NBC hazard by providing area-warning templates based on NBC messages. ATP-45 is designed to produce a single 2-hour hazard area template that accounts for wind speed fluctuations, but it does not take into account time intervals of less than 2 hours and spatial and temporal variations in the wind field that could result in the incorrect orientation of the triangle template. Additionally, an abrupt discontinuity in the template from a circle to a triangle occurs as the wind speed passes through 2.78 ms⁻¹ (10 km/hr). This abrupt change is unrealistic and can result in a significant under- or over-prediction of the hazard area. In this paper we demonstrate how T&D models could help alleviate above problems and supplement ATP-45 hazard templates.

Keywords: ATP-45; CT-Analyst; hazard area prediction; real-time hazard area warning; dispersion modelling; pollutant dispersion; air pollution; hazardous release; wind velocity; wind fluctuations; NBC events.

DOI: 10.1504/IJEP.2012.049649

International Journal of Environment and Pollution, 2012 Vol.48 No.1/2/3/4, pp.30 - 38

Published online: 19 Nov 2014 *

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