Title: Are inflation expectations in Russia forward-looking?

Authors: Anna Sokolova

Addresses: Laboratory for Macroeconomic Analysis, National Research University, Higher School of Economics, Moscow 101000, Russia

Abstract: The aim of this research is to identify the process that guides the evolution of inflation expectations in Russia. The significance of this theoretical issue is stipulated by the fact that the characteristics of this process are the key determinants of both inflation dynamics and the effectiveness of disinflation measures introduced by the Central Bank. This paper studies the degree to which inflation expectations appear forward-looking and backward-looking. We estimate the Hybrid Phillips curve that includes proxies for both backward- and forward-looking components of inflation expectations. Applying generalised method of moments we asses, which of the two components play a predominant role in determining Russian inflation. The estimates are based on the monthly macroeconomic statistics for the period 1999-2013. Our analysis suggests that to a large extent inflation expectations in Russia remain backward-looking. Hence, it is recommended to take action to enhance agents confidence in the Central Banks policy before switching to aggressive inflation targeting.

Keywords: inflation expectations; monetary policy; Russia; inflation dynamics; disinflation measures; macroeconomics; Central Bank.

DOI: 10.1504/IJCEE.2014.060292

International Journal of Computational Economics and Econometrics, 2014 Vol.4 No.1/2, pp.254 - 268

Received: 05 Aug 2013
Accepted: 22 Dec 2013
Published online: 08 Apr 2014 *

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