International Journal of Computational Economics and Econometrics (10 papers in press)

Regular Issues

• Modelling longevity risk. A practical study of the effect of statistical pre-adjustments on mortality trend forecasts  
  by Alexandros E. Milionis, Nikolaos G. Galanopoulos, Petros Hatzopoulos, Aliki Sagianou 
  Abstract: An important risk in the actuarial industry is the longevity risk, therefore the as accurate as possible prediction of mortality rates is very crucial. Such predictions are performed by modelling the mortality rates using mortality models and predicting the future mortality trends. Aiming at possible improvements of such forecasts, we examine the effect of data transformation-linearisation on the quality of time series forecasts of mortality, using data resulted from mortality models for England-Wales. By time series linearisation is meant the treatment of causes that disrupt the underlying stochastic process. Results indicate a clear improvement for interval forecasts of mortality. However, the result for point forecasts is not as clear. The documented improvement in interval forecasts can significantly affect the solvency capital requirement, rendering some pension providers at a competitive advantage. It was also confirmed that the transformed-linearised series satisfy better the need for normality as compared to the original series.
  Keywords: longevity risk; applied time series analysis; time series transformation-’linearisation’; actuarial time series forecasts; mortality rates.
  
  
• Revealed comparative advantage in Greek, post-crisis, agri-food trade  
  by Petros Gkizlis, Dimitrios Dadakas, Alexandros Tsioutsios 
  Abstract: We examine the competitiveness of Greek agri-food exports during the Greek debt crisis. We employ the Balassa revealed comparative advantage (RCA) index and the Vollrath revealed competitiveness (RC) index. Changes in RCA and RC trends together with panel vector autoregression analysis (PVAR), allow us to discuss the dynamic relation of competitiveness and GDP and infer on policies to strengthen Greek agri-food trade. Results show that Greece has a revealed comparative advantage in many agri-food product categories, however, the 2009 debt crisis led to significant losses in competitiveness. Economic policy should target vegetable and foodstuff products to ensure quick recovery of competitiveness in the international markets.
  Keywords: international trade; competitiveness; revealed comparative advantage; RCA; Balassa index; Vollrath index; Greece.
  DOI: 10.1504/IJCEE.2026.10074371
   
  
• Machine learning approach to forecasting global energy consumption and sustainability  
  by George Sammour, Anas Irsheid 
  Abstract: This study applies machine learning specifically K-means clustering and long short-term memory (LSTM) networks to analyse and forecast global energy consumption patterns. Countries were classified into 12 clusters based on energy profiles, GDP, and environmental impacts, identifying seven unique national profiles (the USA, China, France, Germany, Russia, Japan, Canada, and Brazil). These clusters revealed varying dependencies on fossil fuels and renewable sources. LSTM models predicted primary and renewable energy consumption, offering insights for energy planning and investment. Results indicated distinct reliance patterns, renewable energy forecasts were more accurate in Germany and Canada due to stable infrastructure and policies, while Russia and Brazil showed higher variability in renewable adoption. Visual analyses captured deviations during the 20082009 financial crisis and the 2020 COVID pandemic. Overall, the findings demonstrate machine learning potential to optimise energy management, support the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals, and mitigate climate change through improved forecasting and resource utilisation.
  Keywords: energy consumption forecasting; machine learning in energy; fossil fuel dependency; sustainable energy strategies; UN-SDGs; energy demand prediction; long short-term memory; LSTM; K-means clustering.
  DOI: 10.1504/IJCEE.2025.10074820
   
  

Special Issue on: Economic Analysis and the Current Real-World Situation Exploring New Trends in Applied Economics. Special Issue in Honour of Prof. George Agiomirgianakis

• Current account dynamics in selected Southeast Asian economies, using a PSVAR model  
  by Minoas Koukouritakis 
  Abstract: The present paper explores the impact of budget balance shocks, as well as output shocks, on the current account balance of four high-income Southeast Asian countries, namely China, Japan, Republic of Korea and Singapore. For performing this analysis, a panel structural VAR model has been implemented, using an extended sample of a more than 40-year period. The estimated impulse-response functions and variance decompositions for common and idiosyncratic shocks provide an indication regarding the way that fiscal and output shocks affect the current account balance. In brief, they imply that, in the short run, the twin divergence hypothesis holds. In other words, an expansionary fiscal policy will improve the current account balance. However, in the long run, the empirical evidence seems to validate the new classical Ricardian equivalence theorem.
  Keywords: current account balance; budget balance; panel SVAR model; impulse responses; structural variance decompositions.
  
  
• Evaluating the effects of recent geopolitical events on German-Russian trade: a CGE framework approach  
  by Nicholas Tsounis, Gerassimos Bertsatos 
  Abstract: This study employs a multi-sector computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to investigate the German-Russian trade relationship, with an emphasis on the effects of sanctions on Russian imports following Ukraines invasion. The input-output (I-O) table from 2015 is used in the study to quantify the impact of these restrictions and the changes in Germanys production that follow. Various counterfactual scenarios are explored, which includes quota of 67% and 35% on energy and rest of the Russian imports respectively, as well as 30% ad-valorem tariff. The simulation of this quota scenario on the baseline model shows significant reductions in output and domestic use levels. Additionally, the counterfactual analysis of the 30% ad-valorem import tariff on Russian imports indicates a 1.7% overall price increase and a roughly 3.8% decrease in household welfare due to the sanctions.
  Keywords: German-Russian relationship; CGE model; input-output table; substitution elasticity estimation; constant elasticity of substitution; CES.
  
  
• A note on taxation and economic growth nexus  
  by Constantina Kottaridi, Michael Polemis 
  Abstract: We examine the relationship between taxation and economic growth using several tax variables for a sample of OECD economies over the period 1980-2020. Our dynamic panel GMM threshold model follows the spirit of Seo and Shin (2016), hence we can trace non-linearities in the taxation-growth nexus following recent theoretical developments. We unmask a statistically significant inverted “U-shaped” relationship between effective tax rates and economic growth justifying a more efficient reformulation of public policy toward tax reforms. Further, the mixed evidence surrounding the effects of different tax indicators suggests that a one-size-fits-all approach may not be effective. Instead, tailored tax policies that account for the unique economic contexts of different countries, especially within the OECD framework, could lead to more effective economic outcomes.
  Keywords: taxation; threshold analysis; nonlinear effects; dynamic panel GMM; OECD.
  
  
• Investment analytics using association rule mining (Finassociations)  
  by Elif Kartal, M. Erdal Balaban, Zeki Özen 
  Abstract: This study aims to discover financial associations (relations) in (foreign) exchange rates, cryptocurrencies, and stocks using Association Rule Mining (ARM). It demonstrates the applicability and success of ARM on alternative investment instruments over desired periods. A dynamic web application called “Finassociations” was developed in this scope, allowing investors to use and discover ARM. They can use the desired filters to make investment decisions by generating rules for which investment instruments rise or fall together. The application dynamically retrieves current data from Yahoo Finance. This study is a dynamic and expanded update on the existing ones. The exemplary analyses utilized data spanning various periods, up to two years preceding October 9, 2022. According to the study results, significant and strong financial associations in three different investment groups can be obtained. Also, the results show that short-term financial data can be preferred over long-term financial data when examining associations between investment instruments.
  Keywords: association rule mining; ARM; association rules; data mining; apriori; investment decisions; financial associations; finance; foreign exchange rates; cryptocurrencies; stocks.
  DOI: 10.1504/IJCEE.2025.10074441
   
  
• Social cohesion as a determinant of economic activity amidst the crises of the 21st century in EU countries  
  by Demosthenes Georgopoulos, Theodore Papadogonas, George Sfakianakis 
  Abstract: In this paper, we investigate the potential impact of social cohesion on the level of economic activity in European Union countries for the 2001-2022 period. Following a macroeconomic approach we consider the effect of inequality on economic activity using income per capita, competitiveness, public debt and deficit and monetary policy as control variables. For the whole period under investigation, we observe that all but one (competitiveness) explanatory variables are statistically significant, also bearing the expected sign. Particularly interesting, though, is the strong and positive relationship between inequality and unemployment. Even more interesting though is that we observe a change in the effect of inequality on unemployment before and after the 2007-2009 crisis when during that second period inequality became the most significant determinant of unemployment, while in the pre-crisis period it was insignificant. Our approach supports the rekindled interest placed on inequality as an important factor affecting social welfare after the great recession.
  Keywords: unemployment; economic crisis; inequality; competitiveness; public debt; public deficit; GDP per capita; monetary policy.
  
  
• Econometric analysis of the impact of foreign direct investment and other macro-economic indicators on economic growth in India  
  by Anuj Mavlankar, Aakanksha Kataria 
  Abstract: Because it establishes connections between nations that are both enduring and stable, foreign direct investment, or FDI, is an essential component of global economic integration. The connection between FDI and economic expansion has long been a significant issue worldwide. Using econometric analysis, this study examines the impact of FDI on Indias economic growth from 1991 to 2022 and other important parameters like trade openness, inflation rate, government expenditure, domestic investment, human capital, and international crisis. Economic growth is positively impacted by trade openness, government spending, domestic investment, and human capital, according to the empirical findings. On the other hand, economic growth is negatively impacted by the inflation rate and international crisis, which are statistically insignificant. By including the effects of FDI-led economic growth on poverty alleviation and income distribution, the study also suggests a future research direction.
  Keywords: Foreign direct investment; economic growth; econometric analysis; unit root test; cointegration test; India.
  DOI: 10.1504/IJCEE.2025.10073118
   
  
• ?Pricing of European options through a jump-diffusion technique on market prices  
  by Y. Esmaeelzade Aghdam, H. Mesgarani, A. Amin 
  Abstract: This paper provides an efficient approach for approximating the Black-Scholes (B-S) model with a market price jump spread term for European put and call options using orthogonal Gegenbauer polynomials (OGP) and time derivative estimation. Therefore, we formulate a genuine and speedy numerical calculation technique that is grounded on the established convergence recovery method. The derivative matrix of a OGP polynomial is obtained through this polynomial property. Using the numerical method has an advantage in speed and efficiency, as the orthogonality of OGP polynomials and operational matrices decreases calculation time. To validate the validity of the new procedure, it presents two problems and provides numerical analyses that explain its efficiency and accuracy.
  Keywords: Black-Scholes model; jump term; Gegenbauer polynomials; convergence; stability.
  DOI: 10.1504/IJCEE.2026.10074619