Global relationship between economic growth and CO₂ emissions across time: a multilevel approach
by Luiz Paulo Fávero; Rafael De Freitas Souza; Patrícia Belfiore; Marcos Roberto Luppe; Marcos Severo
International Journal of Global Warming (IJGW), Vol. 26, No. 1, 2022

Abstract: This paper investigates the relationship between economic growth and CO₂ emissions worldwide. Based on an extensive review of several similar studies, we propose a novel quantitative methodological approach that captures contextual stances from 187 countries over the period 1800-2016. The proposed multilevel model simultaneously accommodates the interactions between fixed and random effects parameters regarding GDP and carbon dioxide emissions. Additionally, it provides new evidences on the patterns of occurrence of the studied phenomenon between countries over time, respecting the heterogeneities of so distinct observations. More than capturing the positive and statistically significant relationship between economic development and carbon emissions per country, the model underscores the positive signals of the parameters that measure the influence of linear and cubic income over CO₂ emissions, and the negative signal for the parameter of quadratic income, highlighting the validity of the traditional N-shaped curve for the analysed period. Furthermore, we found no differences in the estimation of the parameters between developed and developing countries throughout the period covered by the study, only among countries. Results are particularly important for researchers and policy makers involved with assessing the influence of economic growth on CO₂ emissions.

Online publication date: Thu, 06-Jan-2022

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