Optimal quarantine, isolation, and social distancing strategies for COVID-19 based on a mathematical model
by L.W. Somathilake; M.C.S. Fernando
International Journal of Mathematical Modelling and Numerical Optimisation (IJMMNO), Vol. 12, No. 4, 2022

Abstract: Around 221 countries in the world are currently suffering from the COVID-19 pandemic and the World Health Organization reported there are 217.7 million confirmed cases with 4.5 million deaths tolls as of 31st August 2021. Until a cure is found, it is more appropriate to follow the health guidelines recommended by authorities. Theoretically, forecasting the courses and possible outcomes of such a pandemic is crucial for healthcare sectors to make decisions in advance. This paper aims to find optimal quarantine, isolation, and social distancing strategies for COVID-19 based on the SEIQJR mathematical model with a proper cost analysis. Minimising the cost of the controlling process of diseases is very important for public health policymakers. An optimal control problem is considered with a proposed cost functional which is minimised to yield optimal control strategies. We subsequently insert an inequality state constraint to the problem by considering the possible maximum capacities of hospitals.

Online publication date: Fri, 28-Oct-2022

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