High resolution spatial-temporal downscaling model for historical daily precipitation using INLA
by Pedro Garrett; Filipe Duarte Santos; Rui Perdigão
International Journal of Global Warming (IJGW), Vol. 30, No. 2, 2023

Abstract: Precipitation and precipitation extremes have long been challenging to estimate. Significant progress has been made with successive generations of Earth system models capable of simulating our climate with a global coverage. In this paper, a new statistical approach is presented based on the integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) method to downscale historical daily precipitation rates. The spatial and spatio-temporal structures were used in a Bayesian approach, to produce a daily 5 km regular grid for continental Portugal. Results show the capability of the method to provide fast results aligned with the observations, but still underestimating precipitation events higher than 100 mm/day.

Online publication date: Wed, 17-May-2023

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