Expectation versus reality: an analysis of ex-ante and ex-post competitive balance in major league soccer from 1996-2016
by Dirk Semmelroth; Franziska Prockl
International Journal of Sport Management and Marketing (IJSMM), Vol. 23, No. 4, 2023

Abstract: This paper analyses ex-ante and ex-post competitive balance in Major League Soccer (MLS) based on compiled data from 1996 to 2016. Considering ex-post results and ex-ante information using betting odds allows investigating the development of both dimensions of competitive balance. While the results of the ex-post competitive balance measurements indicate a league that becomes more balanced over time, the ex-ante results suggest a tendency towards imbalance with reduced uncertainty of game outcomes. The findings will help MLS officials to draw conclusions to support decision-making around expansion activities or necessary regulations based on the ex-ante and ex-post balance or imbalance.

Online publication date: Wed, 05-Jul-2023

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