Business cycle variability in Mexico: an empirical analysis from 1980-2017 Online publication date: Mon, 18-Dec-2023
by Guillermo Benavides
International Journal of Economic Policy in Emerging Economies (IJEPEE), Vol. 18, No. 2, 2023
Abstract: The present paper analyses the properties of business cycles dynamics in Mexico from 1980 to 2017. Firstly, there is an examination of whether there have been significant changes in their properties over time. In doing so, the standard methodology about filtering time series for the analysis of business cycles facts are applied. Secondly, standard structural break tests are carried out in order to detect changes in the dynamics of the data. The results show that the volatility of consumption is greater than that of output and net exports and real interest rates are strongly countercyclical. These findings also show a statistically significant decrease in the volatility of the cyclical components of several aggregate variables around the mid-1990s. Important and significant decreases are also observed in nominal variables like inflation and interest rates. These breaks coincide to some known events of economic policy changes in Mexico and may suggest a period of 'Great Moderation' in that country.
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