Interval-valued evidence sets from simulated product competitiveness: a Bulgarian winery decision Online publication date: Thu, 05-Feb-2009
by Margaret F. Shipley, David Olson
International Journal of Applied Decision Sciences (IJADS), Vol. 1, No. 4, 2008
Abstract: An evidence set methodology is developed in this paper to address any situation where there is uncertainty involved in assessing experts' opinions on two or more related decisions. The environment is that of a Bulgarian winery in which several managers make a group decision about whether or not to undertake product introduction, and if so, in what cost range. Primary consideration for product introduction is based on perceived competitiveness of the local, regional and global markets, selling price and profitability of different wines. The paper presents the application utilising simulated results for the perceived factors with expert opinions acquired through collaboration with Bulgarian institutions of higher education. Using the simulated results based on input from the Bulgarian winery experts, evidence is combined that addresses uncertainty in the decision-making process. After illustrating how the paradigm works, an analysis of the benefits of the model is given.
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