Climate change and wheat production in Argentina
by Graciela O. Magrin, Maria I. Travasso, Gabriel R. Rodriguez, Silvina Solman, Mario Nunez
International Journal of Global Warming (IJGW), Vol. 1, No. 1/2/3, 2009

Abstract: The aim of this work is to assess the impact of past and future climate changes on wheat productivity in the Pampas region of Argentina. The study was based on long-term climatic and crop productivity data, regional climatic scenarios and a crop simulation model. Our results demonstrate that the potential wheat yield has been declining at increasing rates since 1930 mainly due to minimum temperature increases. Further increases in temperature could lead to potential wheat yield reductions of 7.5% for each °C of temperature rise. If the expected effects of CO₂ really do occur, the decline of the potential wheat yields due to temperatures that are 2.5°C warmer could be entirely offset by a CO₂ concentration of 550 ppm. If the CO₂ effects are not considered, rainfed wheat yields could be reduced by 4% by the end of the 21st century (2080), the northern part of the Pampas region being the most affected zone. Inversely, if the CO₂ effects are considered, rainfed wheat yield could increase by 14%. Advancing planting dates could be a good strategy to take advantage of new environmental conditions with prolonged frost-free periods.

Online publication date: Tue, 14-Jul-2009

The full text of this article is only available to individual subscribers or to users at subscribing institutions.

 
Existing subscribers:
Go to Inderscience Online Journals to access the Full Text of this article.

Pay per view:
If you are not a subscriber and you just want to read the full contents of this article, buy online access here.

Complimentary Subscribers, Editors or Members of the Editorial Board of the International Journal of Global Warming (IJGW):
Login with your Inderscience username and password:

Username:        Password:          Forgotten your password?

Want to subscribe?
A subscription gives you complete access to all articles in the current issue, as well as to all articles in the previous three years (where applicable). See our Orders page to subscribe.

If you still need assistance, please email subs@inderscience.com