Optimal launch of a new generation of technology: a multi attribute approach discrete time diffusion process
by Nitin Sachdeva; Ompal Singh; P.K. Kapur
International Journal of Technology Marketing (IJTMKT), Vol. 11, No. 1, 2016

Abstract: The art of critical decision making in the presence of conflicting objectives has given rise to multi attribute utility theory (MAUT). For any organisation to gain competitive edge in the market it's imperative to optimise launch time of their new product. Too quick a launch impacts the sales of their current generations while delay in launch may lead to customer's disinterest. In order to optimise launch time, customer's adoption behaviour and cost is considered in the proposed study. To analyse the simultaneous impact of both these attributes we make use of MAUT. A discrete Bass model, which is a discrete analogue of the famous Bass model, is proposed. Bass model is developed in continuous time, which limits its application on many real life applications having discrete time data. Therefore, in this paper a discrete innovation diffusion model is proposed using a discrete logistic function and an exact solution is obtained using probability generating function (PGF). The proposed model is validated on three real life datasets and is optimised to obtain optimal launch time using MAUT.

Online publication date: Mon, 30-Nov-2015

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