Evaluation of local and regional air quality forecasts for London
by Amy Stidworthy; Mark Jackson; Kate Johnson; David Carruthers; Jenny Stocker
International Journal of Environment and Pollution (IJEP), Vol. 64, No. 1/2/3, 2018

Abstract: This paper presents key results from the evaluation of a local-scale air quality forecasting system, airTEXT, alongside the CAMS regional-scale air quality forecast. The CAMS forecast, which is used to account for the long-range transport of pollutants within airTEXT, is adjusted to account for the apparent bias in concentrations predicted within the south-east of England. Forecasts of the UK Daily Air Quality Index metrics for NO₂, O₃, PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 in London have been assessed using the Model Evaluation Toolkit and the DELTA Tool for a five month period during 2017. For NO₂, where air pollutant concentrations are primarily a result of local emissions, the local forecast performs significantly better than the regional forecast as the steep roadside concentration gradients are resolved by ADMS-Urban, the dispersion model used within airTEXT. Although regional O₃ and particulate forecasts dominate the local forecasts, airTEXT also performs better than CAMS for these pollutants by accounting for emissions, dispersion and chemistry at high spatial resolution.

Online publication date: Tue, 16-Apr-2019

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