Title: The long-term trend analysis of rainfall data from 1901 to 2015 for Maharashtra and Goa region from India

Authors: Swapnil S. Potdar; Shreyas Kulkarni; Priyanka Patil; Rani P. Pawar; V.V. Jakhalekar; Dada Pandurang Nade

Addresses: Sanjay Ghodawat Group of Institutions, Shivaji University, Kolhapur, Atigre, India ' Department of Physics, Sanjay Ghodawat University Kolhapur, India ' Department of Physics, Sanjay Ghodawat University Kolhapur, India ' Department of Physics, Sanjay Ghodawat University Kolhapur, India ' Department of Physics, Sanjay Ghodawat University Kolhapur, India ' Sanjay Ghodawat Group of Institutions, Shivaji University, Kolhapur, Atigre, India; Department of Physics, Sanjay Ghodawat University Kolhapur, India

Abstract: In this work, the long-term trend analysis is carried out on the time series of annual and southwest (SW) monsoon rainfall over Maharashtra and Goa regions in India. This time series of rainfall has longer period of 115 years from 1901 to 2015. The four meteorological subdivisions covering Maharashtra and Goa regions: 1) Konkan and Goa; 2) Madhya-Maharashtra; 3) Marathwada; 4) Vidarbha with homogeneous climate are considered to study the spatial variation of long-term trend analysis in the annual and SW monsoon rainfall. The well-known linear regression analysis, Mann-Kendall (MK) analysis test and Sen's slope estimator methods are used to detect the trend and its significance. Our results show that the long-term trend in annual as well as SW monsoon over Maharashtra as a whole, Konkan and Goa and Madhya Maharashtra is increasing while over Marathwada and Vidarbha region it is decreasing. The numbers of normal, drought and flood years are also calculated. We found maximum flood years (22) for Konkan and Goa and maximum drought years (21) for Vidarbha subdivision.

Keywords: rainfall trend; MK test; Sen's slope; regression analysis.

DOI: 10.1504/IJW.2019.101340

International Journal of Water, 2019 Vol.13 No.3, pp.293 - 309

Received: 22 Feb 2019
Accepted: 07 Apr 2019
Published online: 02 Aug 2019 *

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