Title: The adopting of Markov analysis to forecast the probability of students' enrolment at universities scientific faculties in Jordan

Authors: Yazan Khalid Abed-Allah Migdadi; Hala Suliaman Mahmoud Al-Momani

Addresses: Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Business Administration Department, Yarmouk University, P.O. Box 566, Irbid 21163, Jordan ' Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Business Administration Department, Yarmouk University, P.O. Box 566, Irbid 21163, Jordan

Abstract: The main aim of the research is to evaluate and measure the probabilities of scientific faculties' enrolment at public universities in Jordan and examine the impact of universities location. Secondary data were collected from the annual statistical reports of the Ministry of Higher Education and Scientific Research. Eight out of ten public universities were surveyed, ten scientific faculties were investigated. Markov analysis technique was used to evaluate and measure the probabilities. Linear regression was used to forecast the changes of probabilities over time. Non-parametric statistical technique was used to compare the difference among universities and to examine the impact of universities location. This study revealed that the expected number of enrolled students over time of the majority of universities will decrease. The changes of probabilities were found. Significant differences among some universities were found. It also was found that the location of university is not a determinant for expected enrolled students. Many previous studies have used Markov analysis, but there is no one analysed the faculty level.

Keywords: Markov analysis; forecasting; enrolment; scientific faculty; university; Jordan.

DOI: 10.1504/IJOR.2019.102070

International Journal of Operational Research, 2019 Vol.36 No.1, pp.62 - 77

Received: 21 Jan 2016
Accepted: 28 Oct 2016
Published online: 06 Sep 2019 *

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