Title: Alternative projection of the 2040 nuclear power for eight countries

Authors: Yu Sang Chang; Jinyoung Jinnie Yoo

Addresses: Department of Global Business Administration, College of Business, Gachon University, 1342 Seongnamdaero, Sujeong-gu, Seongnam-si, Gyeonggi-do, South Korea ' Department of Global Business Administration, College of Business, Gachon University, 1342 Seongnamdaero, Sujeong-gu, Seongnam-si, Gyeonggi-do, South Korea

Abstract: This study projected nuclear electricity intensity for eight countries - China, the USA, India, South Korea, Japan, Canada and Brazil - which in turn is used to estimate net nuclear electricity generation for year 2020, 2030, and 2040. The net nuclear electricity generation projected by this study then was compared to those projected in the 2013 International Energy Outlook published by the US Energy Information Administration. The 2040 projection from this study is 57.7% higher than Energy Information Administration's projection for China and also 54% higher for the USA. For four other countries, Energy Information Administration's projections are higher than those from this study, but by a smaller margin. Implications from the findings will be discussed.

Keywords: nuclear electricity intensity; net nuclear electricity generation; experience curve; kinked experience curve; progress ratio.

DOI: 10.1504/IJETP.2019.102658

International Journal of Energy Technology and Policy, 2019 Vol.15 No.4, pp.396 - 412

Received: 03 Dec 2016
Accepted: 04 Aug 2017
Published online: 01 Oct 2019 *

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