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Title: Risk management in carbon capture and geological storage: insights from a structured expert elicitation

Authors: Patricia Larkin; Robert Gracie; Ali Shafiei; Maurice Dusseault; Mirhamed Sarkarfarshi; Willy Aspinall; Daniel Krewski

Addresses: McLaughlin Centre for Population Health Risk Assessment, University of Ottawa, Room 216A, 600 Peter Morand Crescent, Ottawa, K1G 5Z3, Ontario Canada ' Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Waterloo, 200 University Avenue West, Room E2-2321, Waterloo, N2L 3G1, Ontario, Canada ' Department of Petroleum Engineering, School of Mining and Geosciences, Nazarbayev University, 53 Kabanbay Batyr Ave., Nur-Sultan, 010000, Republic of Kazakhstan ' Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Waterloo, 200 University Avenue West, EIT-2043, Waterloo, Ontario, N2L 3G1, Canada ' CIBC Global Markets, Toronto, Ontario Canada ' School of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, Beacon House, Queens Road, Bristol, BS8 1QU, UK ' McLaughlin Centre for Population Health Risk Assessment, University of Ottawa, Room 216A, 600 Peter Morand Crescent, Ottawa, Ontario K1G 5Z3, Canada

Abstract: With a focus on risk management (RM) in injection and storage for carbon capture and geological sequestration (CCS), an expert elicitation of scientific judgements quantified collective uncertainty ranges for a number of difficult environmental and human health risk challenges. Results suggest similarities and differences in opinions, an outcome that may be reflective of both the newness and the complexity of this technology. A suitable monitoring period was estimated at about a century; however, uncertainty was three orders of magnitude, with an upper (5th percentile) value of almost 1,000 years. For selected low probability high impact georisks, only site selection and monitoring were considered 'very' effective RM options. Monitoring, well integrity studies, emergency response plan, automatic emergency shut down system and training were considered 'very' or 'extremely' effective in managing two risks more directly related to human health. Experts responded with a wide uncertainty spread for a regulated threshold of minor, major and catastrophic leakage. A companion paper discusses elicitation findings for issues related to risk assessment.

Keywords: carbon capture and storage; expert elicitation; risk management; injection; sequestration; health environment.

DOI: 10.1504/IJRAM.2019.103334

International Journal of Risk Assessment and Management, 2019 Vol.22 No.3/4, pp.404 - 428

Accepted: 02 Apr 2019
Published online: 04 Nov 2019 *