Title: Global CO₂ emissions mathematical modelling to meet the 2015 Paris Agreement on Climate Change

Authors: Nizar Jaoua

Addresses: Department of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, College of Sciences and Human Studies, Prince Mohammad Bin Fahd University, P.O. Box 1664, Khobar 31952, KSA

Abstract: Global carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions, consistent with the 2015 Paris Agreement, are explicitly predicted by using a mathematical approach. Optimised models could serve as control tools for the emissions to meet the climate accord. These pathways are selected among an uncountable collection of models designed with short, mid, or long smooth transition to an exponential decline. A common basis to the modelling is the remaining budget of CO₂ emissions, whose estimation is explicitly determined in terms of the climate target. The graphical confrontation with UN climate simulation models; the RCPs and no- and low-overshoot 1.5°C pathways, demonstrates a mitigation ranging from moderate to high, along with a smooth similar pattern which, in the short-term, would overcome a global shortage of no-carbon energy, and in the long-term, will tolerate low emissions that could be brought to nearly zero before 2050, with no need for CO₂ removal from the air.

Keywords: carbon dioxide; CO₂; climate mitigation; global CO₂ emissions; mathematical modelling; Paris Agreement; remaining CO₂ budget; UN climate target.

DOI: 10.1504/IJGW.2020.107868

International Journal of Global Warming, 2020 Vol.21 No.1, pp.50 - 61

Received: 03 May 2019
Accepted: 14 Dec 2019
Published online: 26 Jun 2020 *

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