Title: Toward understanding 1.5°C global warming influences on temperature and precipitation extremes at different timings: before and after overshooting

Authors: Yanyu Lu; Panmao Zhai; Wei Sun; Hanqing Deng; Dongyan He; Rong Yu; Hong Tian; Jun Lu

Addresses: Anhui Climate Center, Anhui Meteorological Administration, Hefei, China; Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, China Meteorological Administration, No. 46, Zhongguancun South Haidian District, Beijing, 100081, China; College of Engineering and Natural Sciences, The University of Tulsa, 800 South Tucker Drive, Tulsa, Oklahoma, 74104, USA ' Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, China Meteorological Administration, No. 46, Zhongguancun South Haidian District, Beijing, 100081, China ' Anhui Climate Center, Anhui Meteorological Administration, Hefei, China ' Anhui Climate Center, Anhui Meteorological Administration, Hefei, China ' Anhui Climate Center, Anhui Meteorological Administration, Hefei, China ' Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, China Meteorological Administration, No. 46, Zhongguancun South Haidian District, Beijing, 100081, China ' Anhui Climate Center, Anhui Meteorological Administration, Hefei, China ' College of Engineering and Natural Sciences, The University of Tulsa, 800 South Tucker Drive, Tulsa, Oklahoma, 74104, USA

Abstract: To better understand the long-term influences of the 1.5°C target, we provide an assessment of the changes in climate extremes under same warming level but at different timings, based on the magnitude of change, the internal variability, and the model agreement derived from CMIP5. Our findings imply that the changes in climate extremes and their impacts under 1.5°C warming level are projected to be more modest at the stage after overshoot. Specifically, less shares of land area will experience robust increase in extreme hot event and warm spell duration. Potential less cold events after overshooting are also projected. The land areas and population directly experiencing increase in heavy precipitation intensity are projected to slightly increase, whereas more land areas will benefit from the robust decrease in dry spell length. Nevertheless, most of climate extremes analysed in our study will change beyond the upper limit of present-day natural variability.

Keywords: climate extreme; global warming limit; long-term impact; model agreement; population.

DOI: 10.1504/IJGW.2020.108173

International Journal of Global Warming, 2020 Vol.21 No.2, pp.120 - 140

Received: 04 Apr 2019
Accepted: 14 Dec 2019
Published online: 03 Jul 2020 *

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