Title: Sensitivity analysis applied to fuzzy inference on the value of information in the oil and gas industry

Authors: Martin Vilela; Gbenga Folorunso Oluyemi; Andrei Petrovski

Addresses: Robert Gordon University, Sir Ian Wood Building, Garthdee Road, Aberdeen, AB10 7QB, Scotland, UK ' Robert Gordon University, Sir Ian Wood Building, Garthdee Road, Aberdeen, AB10 7QB, Scotland, UK ' Robert Gordon University, Sir Ian Wood Building, Garthdee Road, Aberdeen, AB10 7QB, Scotland, UK

Abstract: This paper aims at enriching the value of information methodology by integrating fuzzy logic into the decision-making process; this integration makes it possible to develop a human thinking assessment and coherently combine several economic criteria. To the authors' knowledge, this is the first use of a fuzzy inference system in the specified domain. The methodology is successfully applied to a case study of an oil subsurface assessment where the results of the standard and fuzzy methodologies are compared, leading to a more robust and complete evaluation. Sensitivity analysis is undertaken for several membership functions used in the case study to assess the impact that shifting, narrowing and stretching the membership relationship has on the value of information. The results of the sensitivity study show that, depending on the shifting, the membership functions lead to different decisions; additional sensitivities to the type of membership functions are investigated, including the functions' parameters.

Keywords: value of information; VoI; fuzzy inference system; FIS; sensitivity analysis; oil and gas industry; uncertainty.

DOI: 10.1504/IJADS.2020.108484

International Journal of Applied Decision Sciences, 2020 Vol.13 No.3, pp.344 - 362

Received: 17 Mar 2019
Accepted: 21 Aug 2019
Published online: 14 Jul 2020 *

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