Title: Climate mitigation mathematical models consistent with the 2015 Paris Agreement

Authors: Nizar Jaoua

Addresses: Department of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, College of Sciences and Human Studies, Prince Mohammad Bin Fahd University, P.O. Box 1664, Khobar 31952, KSA

Abstract: Smooth mathematical models are explicitly designed to describe time future climate trends consistent with the 2015 Paris Agreement. Such models would serve as a basis for the implementation and control of appropriate climate mitigations. A nonlinear interpolation, together with a transition smoothing, is performed to model atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentration. A model for global warming is derived by a specific composition, made practical with the use of matrix representations of the involved functions, whose asymptotic behaviour will permit a long-term stabilisation below the climate target. As applications, the avoidance of further warming and the effectiveness of atmospheric CO₂ mitigation are quantified with time. In addition, an infinite sequence of target-switching models is deduced by induction to improve the effectiveness or for more feasibility with regards to the most binding UN target 1.5°C. The graphical confrontation with the typical piecewise linear models and the UN simulation models RCP demonstrates a smooth pattern of moderate high climate mitigation, with the particular advantage of tolerating low-carbon emissions and keeping the levels always below the prescribed UN climate target.

Keywords: atmospheric carbon dioxide; CO₂; avoidance; climate mitigation model; effectiveness; global average temperature; GAT; global warming; Paris Agreement; UN climate target; UNCT.

DOI: 10.1504/IJGW.2020.108677

International Journal of Global Warming, 2020 Vol.21 No.3, pp.287 - 298

Received: 12 Mar 2019
Accepted: 05 Feb 2020
Published online: 24 Jul 2020 *

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