Title: Risk assessment of smart grids under cyber-physical attacks using Bayesian networks

Authors: Anas AlMajali; Yatin Wadhawan; Mahmood S. Saadeh; Laith Shalalfeh; Clifford Neuman

Addresses: Department of Computer Engineering, The Hashemite University, Zarqa 13133, Jordan ' Information Sciences Institute, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA 90089-0894, USA ' Department of Electrical Engineering, The Hashemite University, Zarqa 13133, Jordan ' Department of Energy Engineering, German Jordanian University, Amman 11180, Jordan ' Information Sciences Institute, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA 90089-0894, USA

Abstract: Different technologies are used to manage the integration of smart devices with the conventional power grid. This new integration allows more control and monitoring capabilities for stakeholders and customers. However, it also makes the smart grid susceptible to new classes of cyber-physical threats that have to be analysed, evaluated and mitigated. In this paper, we evaluate the risk of manipulating circuit breakers that connect a power generator to the smart grid. Our main contribution is performing risk assessment of the grid by combining the vulnerabilities of its cyber domain and the transient stability analysis of its physical domain. First, we estimate the probability of compromising the energy control centre (ECC) using a Bayesian network. The ECC can be exploited to manipulate circuit breakers. Second, we analyse the impact of manipulating circuit breakers in the IEEE 39-bus test system. Third, the probability of compromise and its impact are combined to quantify risk. Finally, we analyse the effect of integrating photovoltaic (PV) systems on the stability of the smart grid under the same attack scenarios. The results indicate that integrating smart grids with PV systems can improve resilience even if a cyber-attack succeeds.

Keywords: smart grid; photovoltaic system; cyber-physical attack; risk; resilience.

DOI: 10.1504/IJESDF.2020.110660

International Journal of Electronic Security and Digital Forensics, 2020 Vol.12 No.4, pp.357 - 385

Received: 22 Jun 2019
Accepted: 16 Sep 2019
Published online: 27 Oct 2020 *

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