Title: The economic effects of climate change on cereal yield in Greece: a spatial analysis selection model

Authors: Ioanna G. Gkiza; Stefanos A. Nastis; Basil D. Manos; Eftichios S. Sartzetakis

Addresses: Department of Agricultural Economics, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Thessaloniki, 54124, Greece ' Department of Agricultural Economics, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Thessaloniki, 54124, Greece ' Department of Agricultural Economics, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Thessaloniki, 54124, Greece ' Department of Economics, University of Macedonia – Accounting and Finance, Thessaloniki, 54006, Greece

Abstract: The aim of this study is to analyse spatially the economic impacts of climate change on cereal yield in Greece. The paper employs the geographically weighted regression (GWR) method to determine the spatially varying relationships between geophysical, soil, climatic and social variables and their effects on crop yield based on both historical climate observations and a future climate emission scenario. In order to achieve this analysis, a high spatial analysis of 10 × 10 km grid cells is utilised. The results indicate that crop yield is influenced by several spatial agrophysical and climate variables. The future climate emission scenario, predicts an average decrease in rainfall, a rise in temperature and an increase in severe weather events. Moreover, these effects are highly region-specific.

Keywords: climate changes; spatial analysis; cereal yield; Greece.

DOI: 10.1504/IJGW.2021.113862

International Journal of Global Warming, 2021 Vol.23 No.3, pp.311 - 330

Received: 17 Feb 2020
Accepted: 03 Sep 2020
Published online: 31 Mar 2021 *

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