Title: The spreading of covid-19 in India and its impact: a mathematical analysis

Authors: Bibhatsu Kuiri; Bubai Dutta; Saikat Santra; Paulomi Mandal; Khaleda Mallick; Ardhendu Sekhar Patra

Addresses: Department of Physics, Sidho-Kanho-Birsha University, Purulia, 723104, India ' Department of Physics, Sidho-Kanho-Birsha University, Purulia, 723104, India ' Department of Physics, Sidho-Kanho-Birsha University, Purulia, 723104, India ' Department of Physics, Sidho-Kanho-Birsha University, Purulia, 723104, India ' Department of Physics, Sidho-Kanho-Birsha University, Purulia, 723104, India ' Department of Physics, Sidho-Kanho-Birsha University, Purulia, 723104, India

Abstract: The rapid spreading of the coronavirus in India and its behaviour for the near future has been studied and analysed as accurately as possible using the SEIR model as a fundamental tool. The official covid-19 data of infected and death cases in India upto 10th October, 2020 have been considered as raw data. The value of various parameters of the model is optimised by feeding the raw data in the simulation model. The various parameters are defined as infection rate, basic reproduction number, death rate, recovery time, exposure time, and other parameters to optimise the best fit model. The total population of India is considered 1.36 billion people. The simulation results that the number of recovered people will be 2.8 × 10⁸ and number of deaths will be 4.2 × 10⁶ after 800 days for the total population of India. In an ideal scenario, at the end of the pandemic total death count is expected to be of the order of 10⁶ which is a big challenge.

Keywords: coronavirus (covid-19); simulation; SEIR model; India; epidemic control; Coronavirus; numerical simulation; parameter estimation; SARS-CoV-2.

DOI: 10.1504/IJCBDD.2021.115677

International Journal of Computational Biology and Drug Design, 2021 Vol.14 No.2, pp.130 - 137

Received: 26 Aug 2020
Accepted: 03 Nov 2020
Published online: 16 Jun 2021 *

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