Title: From event to performance function-based resilience analysis and improvement processes for more sustainable systems

Authors: Ivo Häring; Johannes Schäfer; Georg Vogelbacher; Kai Fischer; Werner Riedel; Katja Faist; Jörg Finger; Mirjam Fehling-Kaschek; Benjamin Scharte; Katharina Ross; Elena-Maria Restayn; Alexander Stolz; Tobias Leismann; Stefan Hiermaier

Addresses: Fraunhofer Institute for High-Speed Dynamics, Ernst-Mach-Institut, EMI, Ernst-Zermelo-Straße 4, 79104 Freiburg im Breisgau, Germany ' Fraunhofer Institute for High-Speed Dynamics, Ernst-Mach-Institut, EMI, Ernst-Zermelo-Straße 4, 79104 Freiburg im Breisgau, Germany ' Fraunhofer Institute for High-Speed Dynamics, Ernst-Mach-Institut, EMI, Ernst-Zermelo-Straße 4, 79104 Freiburg im Breisgau, Germany ' Fraunhofer Institute for High-Speed Dynamics, Ernst-Mach-Institut, EMI, Ernst-Zermelo-Straße 4, 79104 Freiburg im Breisgau, Germany ' Fraunhofer Institute for High-Speed Dynamics, Ernst-Mach-Institut, EMI, Ernst-Zermelo-Straße 4, 79104 Freiburg im Breisgau, Germany ' Fraunhofer Institute for High-Speed Dynamics, Ernst-Mach-Institut, EMI, Ernst-Zermelo-Straße 4, 79104 Freiburg im Breisgau, Germany ' Fraunhofer Institute for High-Speed Dynamics, Ernst-Mach-Institut, EMI, Ernst-Zermelo-Straße 4, 79104 Freiburg im Breisgau, Germany ' Fraunhofer Institute for High-Speed Dynamics, Ernst-Mach-Institut, EMI, Ernst-Zermelo-Straße 4, 79104 Freiburg im Breisgau, Germany ' Center for Security Studies (CSS), ETH Zurich, Haldeneggsteig 4, IFW, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland ' Fraunhofer Institute for High-Speed Dynamics, Ernst-Mach-Institut, EMI, Ernst-Zermelo-Straße 4, 79104 Freiburg im Breisgau, Germany ' Fraunhofer Institute for High-Speed Dynamics, Ernst-Mach-Institut, EMI, Ernst-Zermelo-Straße 4, 79104 Freiburg im Breisgau, Germany ' Fraunhofer Institute for High-Speed Dynamics, Ernst-Mach-Institut, EMI, Ernst-Zermelo-Straße 4, 79104 Freiburg im Breisgau, Germany ' Fraunhofer Institute for High-Speed Dynamics, Ernst-Mach-Institut, EMI, Ernst-Zermelo-Straße 4, 79104 Freiburg im Breisgau, Germany ' Fraunhofer Institute for High-Speed Dynamics, Ernst-Mach-Institut, EMI, Ernst-Zermelo-Straße 4, 79104 Freiburg im Breisgau, Germany

Abstract: Rising extremes and varieties of threats towards socio technical systems ask for improved overall risk control and resilience enhancement. Most current classical approaches focus on the assessment of single or multiple threat events countering system objectives. However, more recent approaches ask for the identification, determination and use of time-dependent system performance functions and their assessment in case of disruptions. Thus, the paper discusses advanced risk and resilience analysis approaches for explosions, terroristic events in urban spaces, cascading effects in coupled supply grids, scoring of critical infrastructures, and tabular resilience analysis and management. Summarising respectively the main processes, methods for steps and results, it argues how time-dependent system performance function resilience approaches allow a more direct quantification of overall risk control objectives, since it assesses main system service functions before, during and post disruptions. The approaches are well suited for communication with the public, management and dashboard mobile visualisation.

Keywords: explosive quantitative risk analysis; terrorism susceptibility and vulnerability; coupled supply grid analysis; quantitative resilience scoring; tabular risk and resilience analytics; system (non) performance function; terrorism susceptibility; semi-quantitative residence analytics.

DOI: 10.1504/IJSMSS.2021.115784

International Journal of Sustainable Materials and Structural Systems, 2021 Vol.5 No.1/2, pp.90 - 120

Received: 28 Sep 2019
Accepted: 02 Apr 2020
Published online: 22 Jun 2021 *