Title: Global warming - pro and contrary interpretations using modelling and analysis of two cities

Authors: Gheorghe Duca; Sergey Olegovich Travin; Ashok Vaseashta; Viorica Gladchi; Yuri Kozlov

Addresses: Academy of Sciences of Moldova, Institute of Chemistry, 3 Academiei Str., MD 2028 Chisinau, Moldova ' N.N. Semenov Federal Research Centre for Chemical Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences, 4, Kosygina Street, 119991, Moscow, Russia ' International Clean Water Institute, Office of Research, Manassas, VA 20112, USA; Ghitu Institute of Electronic Engineering and Nanotechnologies, Academy of Sciences of Moldova, 3/3 Academiei Str. Chisinau, MD 2028, Moldova; Riga Technical University, Institute of Biomedical Engineering and Nanotechnologies, Ķipsalas Str. Riga, LV – 1048, Latvia ' State University of Moldova, 60, Mateevici Str., MD 2009, Chisinau, Republic of Moldova ' N.N. Semenov Federal Research Centre for Chemical Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences, 4, Kosygina Street, 119991, Moscow, Russia

Abstract: While there is abundant scientific agreement on climate change, there are polarising views over global warming. Mathematically sound strategies are necessary to plan appropriate interventions. Hence, monthly and annual averaged temperature time series for the period 1950-2017 for two observation stations in two cities, viz., Chisinau, Moldova and Moscow, Russia are considered. The statistical analysis shows that the correlation between these two geographically different locations for monthly data is higher than the annual averaging method. The series discussed here is described by a new model using seasonal harmonic oscillations plus random noise. Within the available accuracy, the long-term trend is not statistically significant, and the data can be described using a regression equation. All discrepancies between the regression formula and the actual data fit perfectly to the normal Gaussian distribution. The general hypothesis of 'global warming' using the time series studied here cannot be confirmed; instead it provided a negative trend. Connection of temperature with energy balance and its influence on greenhouse gases are discussed.

Keywords: global warming; statistical analysis; correlation; weather stations; temperature and energy balance.

DOI: 10.1504/IJGW.2021.115894

International Journal of Global Warming, 2021 Vol.24 No.2, pp.108 - 130

Received: 26 May 2020
Accepted: 25 Oct 2020
Published online: 05 Jul 2021 *

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