Title: Studying the impact of climate change on the average temperature using CanESM2 and HadCM3 modelling in Iraq

Authors: Waqed H. Hassan; Forqan S. Hashim

Addresses: Civil Engineering Department, College of Engineering, University of Kerbala, Kerbala, Iraq ' Civil Engineering Department, College of Engineering, University of Kerbala, Kerbala, Iraq

Abstract: The main objective of the current study was thus to investigate the expected changes in average annual temperature through to the end of the 21st century in the south-west of Iraq, using a base period of 1979 to 2013. Changes in the average temperature were predicted for the southwest of Iraq during the period 2020 to 2099 using two general circulation models (GCMs), CanESM2 and HadCM3, based on the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) scenarios and emission scenarios A2 and B2. The statistical downscaling model (SDSM) used to downscale the climatic data referred to a baseline (historical) period of 1979 to 2013, and the daily average (maximum and minimum) temperatures projected for the future study period were given for seven meteorological stations. The results show rises in average annual temperatures ranging from 0.3°C to 1.2°C over the study area by the end of the 21st century.

Keywords: statistical downscaling model; SDSM; temperature changes; Iraq; climate change; RCP scenarios.

DOI: 10.1504/IJGW.2021.115898

International Journal of Global Warming, 2021 Vol.24 No.2, pp.131 - 148

Received: 07 Jun 2020
Accepted: 25 Oct 2020
Published online: 05 Jul 2021 *

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