Title: Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Indian states during lockdown: incorporating heterogeneity and non-pharmaceutical interventions

Authors: Rohit Sindhwani; Venkataramanaiah Saddikuti; Omkarprasad S. Vaidya

Addresses: Indian Institute of Management Lucknow, Lucknow, 226013, India; University of Petroleum and Energy Studies, Dehradun, 248007, India ' Indian Institute of Management Lucknow, Noida Campus, Institutional Area, B1 Sector 62, Noida, Uttar Pradesh, India ' Indian Institute of Management Lucknow, Lucknow, 226013, India

Abstract: Early exponential growth of any influenza pandemic is a result of heterogeneous population, where susceptible with high human contact may have spread the disease. The cases of ten worst infected states in India due to SARS-CoV-2 as of 9 June 2020 are modelled to find the number of super-spreaders. We propose the use of model considering heterogeneous population and non-pharmaceutical measures during lockdown considerations from 25 March 2020 to 31 May 2020 for the state-specific transmission dynamics. A fixed sample of population element is measured before the COVID-19 outbreak. The impact of social distancing and personal hygiene through the empirical research is observed. We incorporated the behaviour change in the models. Our results indicate that the vulnerability is high in Bihar, while the conditions in Delhi, UP and West Bengal may deteriorate in the near future. We highlight that policy of testing, social distancing and personal hygiene should be continued.

Keywords: influenza progression; lockdown; pandemic; reproductive number; COVID-19; social distancing; heterogeneous population.

DOI: 10.1504/IJICBM.2021.117477

International Journal of Indian Culture and Business Management, 2021 Vol.23 No.4, pp.490 - 521

Received: 11 Jun 2020
Accepted: 31 Jul 2020
Published online: 08 Sep 2021 *

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