Title: Research on carbon productivity of the construction industry in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region using system dynamics model

Authors: Wei Sun; Yanan Han; Fan Zhang; Chaoxia Hu; Yujun He

Addresses: Department of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Baoding, Hebei, China ' Department of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Baoding, Hebei, China ' Department of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Baoding, Hebei, China ' Department of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Baoding, Hebei, China ' Department of Electronic and Communication Engineering, North China Electric Power University, Baoding, Hebei, China

Abstract: In this paper, the carbon productivity of construction industry in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei is researched to guide regional low-carbon development. First, the log mean divisia index method is adopted to identify the main driving factors of regional carbon productivity. Then, based on the system dynamics theory, three scenarios are designed to predict the future of carbon productivity. Results show that the carbon productivity under three scenarios will reach 0.58438, 0.84304, 0.86592 (×10⁴) Yuan/ton by 2030, respectively, indicating that low-carbon measures can help to improve carbon productivity. Finally, some suggestions are provided.

Keywords: Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei construction industry; log mean divisia index; carbon productivity; system dynamics model.

DOI: 10.1504/IJGW.2021.119008

International Journal of Global Warming, 2021 Vol.25 No.3/4, pp.390 - 407

Received: 14 Aug 2020
Accepted: 15 Mar 2021
Published online: 17 Nov 2021 *

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