Title: Applying system dynamic to predict production and market demand of patchouli oil

Authors: Dina Rahmayanti; Rika Ampuh Hadiguna; Santosa Santosa; Novizar Nazir

Addresses: Department of Industrial Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Universitas Andalas, Indonesia; Department of Agricultural Science, Faculty of Agricultural, Universitas Andalas, Kampus Limau Manis, Padang, Sumatera Barat, Indonesia ' Department of Industrial Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Universitas Andalas, Kampus Limau Manis, Padang, Sumatera Barat, Indonesia ' Department of Agricultural Engineering, Faculty of Agricultural Technology, Kampus Limau Manis, Padang, Sumatera Barat, Indonesia ' Department of Agricultural Product Technology, Faculty of Agricultural Technology, Kampus Limau Manis, Padang, Sumatera Barat, Indonesia

Abstract: This study aims to identify the supply chain, the analysis gap between patchouli oil production number and demand for the next few years using system dynamic model. The simulation will do from 2018 until 2025. The simulation result showed that not every year the amount of patchouli oil demands are able to be fulfilled by the collectors. In 2018 and 2019, overseas demand has not been able to be achieved by patchouli oil production in West Pasaman, while 2020 to 2022 predicted order fulfilled well. The following year the request has not been met adequately. The number of planting areas has a positive influence on wet patchouli, which positively affects the production of patchouli oil. Patchouli oil production in West Pasaman can increase by adding a patchouli planting area. In addition to designing strategies, the government must disseminate to local communities the importance of quality. Farmers need training and training on quality so that the demand for patchouli oil in West Pasaman increases.

Keywords: patchouli oil production; patchouli oil demand; system dynamic.

DOI: 10.1504/IJAITG.2021.119725

International Journal of Agriculture Innovation, Technology and Globalisation, 2021 Vol.2 No.2, pp.125 - 137

Received: 16 Aug 2019
Accepted: 27 Jul 2020
Published online: 16 Dec 2021 *

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