Title: Mathematical model of terrorism: case study of Boko Haram

Authors: Michael Lazarus Smah

Addresses: Department of Mathematical Sciences, Faculty of Physical and Pharmaceutical Sciences, Bayero University, P.M.B. 3011, Kano, Nigeria

Abstract: A deterministic mathematical model that incorporates hostages taken by terrorists, arrested terrorists and the impact of negotiation to release arrested terrorists in exchange for hostages have been formulated in this paper to investigate the dynamics of terrorism in a region. Terrorist free equilibrium point of the model exists, and using the Jacobian matrix and Lyapunov function approach, it is locally and globally (in a special case) asymptotically stable when the reproduction number is less than unity. Negotiation to swap captives is shown to be beneficial provided the rate of such negotiations lies within a restricted range. Real-life data on Boko Haram terrorism have been used to test the model. Increasing counter-terrorism rate to 11 times and reducing the recruitment rate into Boko Haram by 4.2 times the baseline values, together with ensuring that hostages are not taken, will lead to the control of Boko Haram terrorism.

Keywords: terrorism; Boko-Haram; counter-terrorism; mathematical modelling; intervention.

DOI: 10.1504/IJMMNO.2022.119788

International Journal of Mathematical Modelling and Numerical Optimisation, 2022 Vol.12 No.1, pp.88 - 112

Received: 10 Apr 2021
Accepted: 20 Aug 2021
Published online: 20 Dec 2021 *