Title: Indian COVID-19 time series prediction using Facebook's Prophet model

Authors: Mamata Garanayak; Goutam Sahu; Gouse Baig Mohammad; Sujata Chakravarty

Addresses: Department of Computer Science & Engineering, Centurion University of Technology and Management, Odisha, India; Department of Computer Science and Information Technology, Catholic University in Erbil, Erbil, Iraq ' Department of Computer Science & Engineering, Centurion University of Technology and Management, Odisha, India; Department of Computer Science and Information Technology, Catholic University in Erbil, Erbil, Iraq ' Department of Computer Science & Engineering, Centurion University of Technology and Management, Odisha, India; Department of Computer Science and Information Technology, Catholic University in Erbil, Erbil, Iraq ' Department of Computer Science & Engineering, Centurion University of Technology and Management, Odisha, India; Department of Computer Science and Information Technology, Catholic University in Erbil, Erbil, Iraq

Abstract: The entire world has been facing an unprecedented public health crisis due to Covid-19 pandemic for the last one year. Meanwhile, more than one million people across the world have already died; many more millions are under treatment. Some countries in Europe have begun to experience the second wave of the pandemic too. This has put the entire health infrastructure of countries under severe strain and has led to downward spiral in the economy. The most worrisome part is the uncertainty as to the spread or arrest of the pandemic. In such a scenario, robust forecasting methods are needed to enable health professionals and governments to make necessary preparation in accordance with the situation. Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning techniques are useful tools not only for collection of accurate data but also for prediction. Studies show that Time Series Forecasting Techniques like Facebook's Prophet have shown promising results. In this paper, Time Series Techniques have been used to forecast the numbers of death, recovery and positive cases 60 days ahead. The experimental results obtained demonstrate that machine learning techniques can be beneficial in forecasting the behaviour of the pandemic.

Keywords: machine learning; prophet; COVID-19; time series; coronavirus; prediction.

DOI: 10.1504/IJCAT.2021.120466

International Journal of Computer Applications in Technology, 2021 Vol.66 No.3/4, pp.374 - 388

Received: 24 Jul 2020
Accepted: 01 Nov 2020
Published online: 21 Jan 2022 *

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