Article: Projection of reference evapotranspiration over Ondo State using an ensemble of climate models Journal: International Journal of Global Warming (IJGW) 2022 Vol.26 No.3 pp.294 - 310 Abstract: Reference evapotranspiration (ETo) is a significant component of the hydrological cycle useful to develop integrated water resources management (IWRM). Climate change may have potential effects on ETo over Ondo State. It is essential to determine uncertainties in ETo for designing future water-holding structures and projecting crop water requirements (CWR). The sensitivity analysis over the study area indicated that an ensemble of six general circulation models (GCMs) from the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMP5) under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5) projected increases in maximum and minimum temperatures (Tmax and Tmin) for the 2050s (2035-2065) and 2080s (2070-2100). The simulation run outputs showed that the projected ETo increased for the periods 2050s and 2080s in response to the baseline period (1975-2005), with larger increases in the 2080s. Generally, the predicted increases in ETo over Ondo State could be attributed to the expected increases in Tmax and Tmin. Inderscience Publishers - linking academia, business and industry through research

Title: Projection of reference evapotranspiration over Ondo State using an ensemble of climate models

Authors: Y. Olotu; M. Abudu; D.A. Okodugha; S.G. Akinyemi; M.M. Bejide; M. Okafor

Addresses: Department of Agricultural and Bio-Environmental Engineering, Auchi Polytechnic, Auchi, Nigeria ' Department of Mechanical Engineering, Auchi Polytechnic, Auchi, Nigeria ' Department of Civil Engineering, Auchi Polytechnic, Auchi, Nigeria ' Department of Statistics, Auchi Polytechnic, Auchi, Nigeria ' Department of Urban and Regional Planning, Auchi Polytechnic, Auchi, Nigeria ' Department of Civil Engineering, Auchi Polytechnic, Auchi, Nigeria

Abstract: Reference evapotranspiration (ETo) is a significant component of the hydrological cycle useful to develop integrated water resources management (IWRM). Climate change may have potential effects on ETo over Ondo State. It is essential to determine uncertainties in ETo for designing future water-holding structures and projecting crop water requirements (CWR). The sensitivity analysis over the study area indicated that an ensemble of six general circulation models (GCMs) from the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMP5) under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5) projected increases in maximum and minimum temperatures (T_max and T_min) for the 2050s (2035-2065) and 2080s (2070-2100). The simulation run outputs showed that the projected ETo increased for the periods 2050s and 2080s in response to the baseline period (1975-2005), with larger increases in the 2080s. Generally, the predicted increases in ETo over Ondo State could be attributed to the expected increases in T_max and T_min.

Keywords: reference evapotranspiration; general circulation models; GCMs; climate change; Ondo State; Representative Concentration Pathways; crop water requirements; CWR; IWRM.

DOI: 10.1504/IJGW.2022.121229

International Journal of Global Warming, 2022 Vol.26 No.3, pp.294 - 310

Received: 06 Jan 2021
Accepted: 15 Jun 2021
Published online: 01 Mar 2022 *

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Title: Projection of reference evapotranspiration over Ondo State using an ensemble of climate models

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