Title: The purchasing managers' index as a predictor of the economic situation during COVID-19 and its relevance for decision making

Authors: Javier Cifuentes-Faura

Addresses: Department of Financial Economy and Accounting, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Murcia, Murcia, 30100, Spain

Abstract: The economic crisis of the coronavirus differs from all previous ones because of its particularities. There is a simultaneous destruction of demand and supply. It is difficult to know the real impact that the COVID-19 crisis has had on international trade, as it is not usually visible in the short term in most data. However, from indicators such as the purchasing managers' index (PMI) we can get to know the extent of the global slowdown that is taking place. This paper tries to determine the information capacity of the PMI and its importance in previous decision making. To this end, we have analysed the correlation between the PMI and GDP in the European Union, one of the areas that is being most affected by the COVID-19. In addition, some of the possible economic measures by public authorities to reduce the impact of the pandemic are analysed.

Keywords: COVID-19; purchasing manager index; PMI; GDP; economic crisis.

DOI: 10.1504/IJPP.2021.121893

International Journal of Public Policy, 2021 Vol.16 No.1, pp.1 - 12

Received: 30 Dec 2020
Accepted: 30 Jun 2021
Published online: 07 Apr 2022 *

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