Title: Buffer estimation in the critical chain method by considering internal and external risks

Authors: Hamed Asgari

Addresses: Department of Industrial Engineering, Bu-Ali Sina University, Hamedan, Iran

Abstract: As a novel concept in project management, the critical chain method has attracted most researchers and project managers' attention in recent years. In this research, the internal and external source of uncertainty is considered simultaneously during the buffer estimation process. In order to identify the external risks of the project, the failure mode and effect analysis technique has been used. Additionally, the lognormal distribution function is utilised for stimulating activities duration as internal risk resources. Considering internal and external risks in a project will bring the results closer to real-world results. Finally, a real case study is experimented with to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed model. Numerical instances show that the suggested buffer estimation method can be better than the traditional cut and paste method in projects. Various organisations can use the results of this research and individuals and, at the same time, facilitate project management.

Keywords: project management; buffer estimation; internal risk resources; external risk resources; failure mode; effect analysis.

DOI: 10.1504/IJAOM.2022.122694

International Journal of Advanced Operations Management, 2022 Vol.14 No.1, pp.16 - 30

Accepted: 16 Jan 2021
Published online: 05 May 2022 *