Title: Spatiotemporal analysis of the future sensitivity to wind erosion using ensemble of the regional climate models: a case study

Authors: Aleksandar Baumgertel; Sara Lukić; Milica Caković; Predrag Miljković; Milica Tošić; Irida Lazić; Vladimir Djurdjević; Mladen Marković

Addresses: Department of Ecological Engineering for Soil and Water Resources Protection, Faculty of Forestry, University of Belgrade, Kneza Višeslava 1, Belgrade 11000, Serbia ' Department of Ecological Engineering for Soil and Water Resources Protection, Faculty of Forestry, University of Belgrade, Kneza Višeslava 1, Belgrade 11000, Serbia ' Department of Ecological Engineering for Soil and Water Resources Protection, Faculty of Forestry, University of Belgrade, Kneza Višeslava 1, Belgrade 11000, Serbia ' Department of Ecological Engineering for Soil and Water Resources Protection, Faculty of Forestry, University of Belgrade, Kneza Višeslava 1, Belgrade 11000, Serbia ' Faculty of Physics, Institute of Meteorology, University of Belgrade, Dobračina 16, Belgrade 11000, Serbia ' Faculty of Physics, Institute of Meteorology, University of Belgrade, Dobračina 16, Belgrade 11000, Serbia ' Faculty of Physics, Institute of Meteorology, University of Belgrade, Dobračina 16, Belgrade 11000, Serbia ' Public Enterprise "Roads of Serbia", Bulevar Kralja Aleksandra 282, Belgrade 11000, Serbia

Abstract: Climate indicators (temperature and precipitation) are particularly important in times of global climate change because they create the preconditions for the development of wind erosion. The main goal of this research is to analyse the land's susceptibility to wind erosion in the future, using the fuzzy logic for the non-growing season (March and November) as well as for the growing season (July). The climate factor (CF) has been calculated for four different time periods: 1971-2000, 2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100. The data were extracted for 11 different combinations of regional climate models (RCMs) and global climate models (GCMs) using the EURO-CORDEX database. The climate sensitivity to wind erosion is bound to be significantly higher in the growing season (late 21st century) due to the increase in the average monthly air temperature and the decrease in precipitation.

Keywords: wind erosion; fuzzy logic; environmental modelling; regional climate change; EURO-CORDEX.

DOI: 10.1504/IJGW.2022.124203

International Journal of Global Warming, 2022 Vol.27 No.3, pp.284 - 299

Received: 16 Aug 2021
Accepted: 09 Dec 2021
Published online: 18 Jul 2022 *

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