Title: Dynamic models of production-finance activity of enterprises in conditions of uncertainties and risk

Authors: Alexander Vladimirovich Mishchenko; Vitaly Vitalievich Solodovnikov; Tamara Gennadjevna Apal'kova

Addresses: Logistics Department, National Research University – Higher School of Economics, Shabolovka Str., 26, Bld. 4, Moscow, 115419, Russia ' Supply Chain Management Department, National Research University – Higher School of Economics, Shabolovka Str., 26, Bld. 4, Moscow, 115419, Russia ' Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, 49 Leningradsky Prospekt, 125993, Moscow, Russia

Abstract: The problem of optimal management of various types of production resources in conditions of uncertainty and risk taking into account recoverable and unrecoverable defects is relevant and necessary to ensure the competitiveness of modern industrial enterprises. The aim of the research is to develop mathematical tools for evaluating the effectiveness of industrial logistics systems, taking into account uncertainty and risk. The paper presents a set of dynamic optimisation models for evaluating the effectiveness of industrial logistics systems, the solution of which is a vector function of time, which sets the productivity of production operations according to the criterion of profit maximisation, taking into account a number of constraints. The results of this work are the development of: the complex of optimal control models taking into account uncertainty and risk; the tool to convert an optimal control problem to linear programming model; the evaluation mechanism of the stability of solutions under changes in the prices of end products; risk assessment methods of the obtained solution. The practical use of the developed tools was shown in evaluating the effectiveness of the investment program of the manufacturer of computers.

Keywords: optimisation models; production activity; uncertainty; recoverable and unrecoverable defects.

DOI: 10.1504/IJLSM.2022.125665

International Journal of Logistics Systems and Management, 2022 Vol.43 No.1, pp.86 - 111

Received: 13 Dec 2019
Accepted: 26 Jun 2020
Published online: 26 Sep 2022 *

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