Title: Optimal quarantine, isolation, and social distancing strategies for COVID-19 based on a mathematical model

Authors: L.W. Somathilake; M.C.S. Fernando

Addresses: Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, University of Ruhuna, Matara, Sri Lanka ' Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, University of Ruhuna, Matara, Sri Lanka

Abstract: Around 221 countries in the world are currently suffering from the COVID-19 pandemic and the World Health Organization reported there are 217.7 million confirmed cases with 4.5 million deaths tolls as of 31st August 2021. Until a cure is found, it is more appropriate to follow the health guidelines recommended by authorities. Theoretically, forecasting the courses and possible outcomes of such a pandemic is crucial for healthcare sectors to make decisions in advance. This paper aims to find optimal quarantine, isolation, and social distancing strategies for COVID-19 based on the SEIQJR mathematical model with a proper cost analysis. Minimising the cost of the controlling process of diseases is very important for public health policymakers. An optimal control problem is considered with a proposed cost functional which is minimised to yield optimal control strategies. We subsequently insert an inequality state constraint to the problem by considering the possible maximum capacities of hospitals.

Keywords: COVID-19; disease control strategies; disease modelling; optimal control; state constraint.

DOI: 10.1504/IJMMNO.2022.126569

International Journal of Mathematical Modelling and Numerical Optimisation, 2022 Vol.12 No.4, pp.351 - 369

Received: 21 Sep 2021
Accepted: 28 Mar 2022
Published online: 28 Oct 2022 *

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