Title: Extreme value innovative trend analysis methodology

Authors: Zekâi Şen

Addresses: Engineering and Natural Sciences Faculty, Istanbul Medipol University, Beykoz, 34815, Istanbul, Turkey; Center of Excellence for Climate Change Research, Department of Meteorology, King Abdulaziz University, P.O. Box 80234, Jeddah 21589, Saudi Arabia

Abstract: The main concern of the article is to determine the trend analyses of upper and lower extreme values separately, apart from the classical central trend. The innovative trend analysis (ITA) modification is adapted for extreme value trend analysis using one standard deviation level from the arithmetic mean value. Extreme value trends emerge along completely different monotonous lines. The application of the proposed methodology is presented for the annual total rainfall time series of seven meteorological stations from each geographical and climatological regions of Turkey. In the future, it is recommended to use only the classical central trend extreme value trend analyses for refined forecasts.

Keywords: average; drought; extreme; flood; hazard; lower; rainfall; risk; slope; trend; upper.

DOI: 10.1504/IJGW.2022.126674

International Journal of Global Warming, 2022 Vol.28 No.3, pp.297 - 310

Received: 19 Jan 2022
Received in revised form: 26 Apr 2022
Accepted: 26 Apr 2022
Published online: 01 Nov 2022 *

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