Title: Future analysis to define guidelines for Iran's e-commerce: scenario planning

Authors: Fooziye Shaykhzade

Addresses: West University of Timisoara (UVT), Bulevardul Vasile Pârvan 4, Timișoara, Romania

Abstract: E-commerce has created a new era in market competition according to speed, efficiency, cost reduction and utilising every opportunity. The present study was carried out to define the possible scenarios of Iran's e-commerce on the Vision of 2025. A sample of managers and experts was chosen. First, using a fuzzy Delphi method, ten key uncertainties were identified. Second, different possible states of key uncertainties were created the cross-impact balance analysis matrix. Third compatible scenarios were recognised by using Scenario Wizard software. The results showed that three scenarios were identified as follows: flourishing, realistic and bad luck. The most constructive scenario is called the flourishing scenario, the most feasible scenario is called the realistic scenario, and the defeatist scenario is the bad luck scenario. After analysing the identified scenarios, practical strategies were provided; they enable companies to reduce the unexpected consequences of future changes and prepare them to benefit from future opportunities. In an international context, developing countries with similar political and national barriers can benefit from these strategies.

Keywords: e-commerce; electronic commerce; futurology; scenario planning; Vision 2025; Iran.

DOI: 10.1504/IJMED.2023.128168

International Journal of Management and Enterprise Development, 2023 Vol.22 No.1, pp.72 - 90

Received: 28 Jul 2021
Accepted: 09 Oct 2022
Published online: 09 Jan 2023 *