Title: Exploratory analysis of the effectiveness of measures against the COVID-19 disease

Authors: Karla Baričević; Marina Bagić Babac

Addresses: University of Zagreb, Zagreb, Croatia ' University of Zagreb, Zagreb, Croatia

Abstract: During the COVID-19 pandemic, each country implemented its own social and economic policies to prevent the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. The aim of this study is to explore which epidemiological measures were the most effective by analysing the social and economic indicators that represent a country. In addition, the time of reaction to an epidemic process in a country is also considered. The analysis is based on a compartmental SIR model, which can predict various epidemiological parameters, and effectively shows how the course of the pandemic is affected by public health measures. The optimal strategy to prevent the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus seems to be a swift reaction at the beginning of the outbreak to prevent exponential growth followed by measures which would not suppress the epidemic and cause economic damage or allow for a second outbreak. The measures which should be implemented at this stage should control the epidemic until the population becomes immune by keeping the reproduction number minimal but above 1. Based on this analysis, if planned and employed in the right way, this strategy could produce optimal results.

Keywords: COVID-19; pandemic; epidemiology; R₀; SIR model; data analysis.

DOI: 10.1504/IJSPR.2022.128757

International Journal of Student Project Reporting, 2022 Vol.1 No.2, pp.188 - 202

Received: 27 Jul 2022
Accepted: 26 Nov 2022
Published online: 02 Feb 2023 *

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