Title: Transmission of COVID-19 through asymptomatic individuals

Authors: Nita H. Shah; Ankush H. Suthar; Purvi M. Pandya

Addresses: Department of Mathematics, Gujarat University, Ahmedabad-380009, Gujarat, India ' Department of Mathematics, Gujarat University, Ahmedabad-380009, Gujarat, India ' Department of Mathematics, Gujarat University, Ahmedabad-380009, Gujarat, India

Abstract: The rapid emergence of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has already taken on pandemic proportions, resulting thousands of deaths around the world. In the present manuscript, a mathematical model is proposed to investigate the current outbreak of the COVID-19. The model includes multiple transmission pathways and emphasises the role of asymptomatic and symptomatic infected population in the spread of this disease. To predict upcoming situation and a detail analysis of the spread of COVID-19 outbreak, basic reproduction number is calculated using publicly reported data from three different countries, where the outbreak is at its peak (USA), initial level (India) and controlled up to certain level (Japan). Analytical and numerical results of the model indicate that current on-going outbreak of COVID-19 would remain endemic if we do not proceed with extreme vigilance due to the serious risk it poses around the globe.

Keywords: COVID-19; asymptomatic transmission; mathematical model; basic reproduction number; numerical simulation.

DOI: 10.1504/IJASS.2023.129073

International Journal of Applied Systemic Studies, 2023 Vol.10 No.1, pp.1 - 15

Received: 23 Dec 2020
Accepted: 23 Feb 2021
Published online: 17 Feb 2023 *