Title: Aggregate production planning of Abu Ghraib Dairy factories based on forecasting and goal programming

Authors: Wakas Saad Khalaf; Mustafa G. Ali

Addresses: Department of Industrial Management, College of Administration and Economics, University of Baghdad, P.O.B. 4097, Alwaziria, Baghdad, Iraq ' Department of Industrial Management, College of Administration and Economics, University of Baghdad, P.O.B. 4097, Alwaziria, Baghdad, Iraq

Abstract: The aim of this article is to build a comprehensive multi-objective production plan for Al-Rafidain plant spanning 12 months based on two methods - the auto regression integrated moving averages (ARIMA) model to forecast the market demand for the products and the method of goal programming (GP) - to find compatible solutions among the goals to be achieved. The ready-made program MATLAB was used to find the future values of the time series and also to solve the multi-objective mathematical model. For the most important results achieved, the mathematical model was able to achieve the first goal by 97%, which was the maximisation of profits; the total profits achieved a value of USD3,625,856. The second goal was achieved successfully because of the decrease that occurred in the costs, the value of which was USD2,456,625. Finally, the third goal was achieved by 98%, in that the plant's return on investment was decreased to 1.476.

Keywords: aggregate production planning; APP; goal programming; forecasting; auto regression integrated moving averages; ARIMA.

DOI: 10.1504/IJOR.2023.129156

International Journal of Operational Research, 2023 Vol.46 No.2, pp.189 - 209

Received: 02 Feb 2020
Accepted: 30 Apr 2020
Published online: 24 Feb 2023 *

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