Title: Post-COVID-19 economic growth scenarios for Mexico City

Authors: Luis Quintana Romero; Miguel Ángel Mendoza González; Carlos Salas Páez; Marcos Valdivia López

Addresses: Facultad de Estudios Superiores Acatlán, UNAM, Mexico ' División de Posgrado de la Facultad de Economía, UNAM, Mexico ' Unversidad Autónoma Metropolitana Azcapotzalco, Mexico ' Centro Regional de Investigaciones Multidisciplinarias, UNAM, Mexico

Abstract: The objective of this work is to identify post-pandemic recovery scenarios for Mexico City based on different trajectories of labour productivity. Based on the concepts of economic contagion, spatial effects and spatial productivity, the contribution of this work lies in the estimation of a spatial panel model that allows simulating post-COVID economic recovery scenarios. Results show the benefits of implementing an investment policy for certain strategic sectors in the different municipalities of Mexico City, namely higher value added sectors, knowledge-intensive services, green industries, and sectors of high employment generation. These investment decisions could favour Mexico City for decades to come, locking it into a path of economic development that is both environmentally and socially sustainable.

Keywords: economic impacts of COVID-19; Mexico City economy; spatial panel models; sustainable growth; post-pandemic recovery; economic growth; labour productivity; economic contagion; spatial productivity; crisis and COVID-19; economic policy; simulation analysis.

DOI: 10.1504/IJEPEE.2023.129786

International Journal of Economic Policy in Emerging Economies, 2023 Vol.17 No.2, pp.162 - 182

Received: 14 Dec 2020
Accepted: 16 Feb 2021
Published online: 27 Mar 2023 *

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