Title: Expectation versus reality: an analysis of ex-ante and ex-post competitive balance in major league soccer from 1996-2016

Authors: Dirk Semmelroth; Franziska Prockl

Addresses: Department of Management, Paderborn University, Warburger Straße 100, 33098 Paderborn, Germany ' Department of Management, Paderborn University, Warburger Straße 100, 33098 Paderborn, Germany

Abstract: This paper analyses ex-ante and ex-post competitive balance in Major League Soccer (MLS) based on compiled data from 1996 to 2016. Considering ex-post results and ex-ante information using betting odds allows investigating the development of both dimensions of competitive balance. While the results of the ex-post competitive balance measurements indicate a league that becomes more balanced over time, the ex-ante results suggest a tendency towards imbalance with reduced uncertainty of game outcomes. The findings will help MLS officials to draw conclusions to support decision-making around expansion activities or necessary regulations based on the ex-ante and ex-post balance or imbalance.

Keywords: major league soccer; MLS; competitive balance; uncertainty of outcome; betting odds; game results; fan demand; sport management.

DOI: 10.1504/IJSMM.2023.131952

International Journal of Sport Management and Marketing, 2023 Vol.23 No.4, pp.346 - 371

Accepted: 24 Mar 2022
Published online: 05 Jul 2023 *

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