Title: Continuous monitoring of COVID-19 pandemic trend for policy making: improvised application of Sen's innovative method

Authors: Saha Dauji

Addresses: NRB Office, Bhabha Atomic Research Centre, Mumbai, 400094, India; School of Engineering Sciences, Homi Bhabha National Institute, Mumbai, 400094, India

Abstract: The study examines the efficacy of Sen's Innovative Trend Analysis for early identification of the start of the rise in daily new SARS-COV2 cases and proposes simple improvisation for continuous monitoring. Sen's Innovative Slope could identify the start of the rise (second wave) in India ahead of the other tools (time history/moving average plots). Comparison across administrative units using normalised slopes highlighted possible differences, sometimes opposite trends. Policies for containing infection or reducing fatality formulated for larger administrative units need fine-tuning according to the local trends of smaller ones for proper management of the progression of the pandemic.

Keywords: SARS-CoV2; pandemic monitoring; Sen's innovative trend; sliding window; epidemic management; health policy making; statistical approach; comparison of trend; normalised trend line slope; India.

DOI: 10.1504/IJHTM.2023.132457

International Journal of Healthcare Technology and Management, 2023 Vol.20 No.3, pp.197 - 231

Received: 14 Jun 2021
Accepted: 17 Jun 2022
Published online: 20 Jul 2023 *

Full-text access for editors Full-text access for subscribers Purchase this article Comment on this article