Title: Runoff prediction based on climate change projection of the Greater Zab River Basin

Authors: Elzahry F. Elzahry; Sherien Ahmed Zahran; Muhanad Talal Al-Sheer

Addresses: Civil Engineering Department, Faculty of Engineering at Shoubra, Benha University, Egypt ' National Water Research Center, Environment and Climate Research Institute, Egypt ' Dams and Water Resources Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Mosul University, Iraq

Abstract: Lumped hydrological model (HEC-HMS) is established to simulate the surface runoff in the Greater Zab Basin (20,435 km²), resulting from precipitation and dominant snowmelt to predict the stream flow with applied climate changes scenarios for the best management of water resources systems. The temperature index method was utilised to simulate snowmelt process. Long-term daily runoff at a stream gauging station, precipitation and air temperatures at 20 gauging stations, land use, soil type and digital elevation model data of the basin were used to set-up the hydrologic model. The model was calibrated and validated. The future predictions of daily climate data downloaded from CORDEX and bias corrected for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 to predict flow hydrographs of the basin during 2047-2073 and 2074-2100 periods. The results show that flood peak for future periods under medium and high scenarios will increase with 7.5% and 52%, respectively.

Keywords: Greater Zab Basin; HEC-HMS; snowmelt; temperature index; climate change; rainfall-runoff.

DOI: 10.1504/IJHST.2023.133149

International Journal of Hydrology Science and Technology, 2023 Vol.16 No.3, pp.223 - 239

Received: 08 Dec 2021
Accepted: 03 Apr 2022
Published online: 01 Sep 2023 *

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