Title: Prediction of meteorological parameters using statistical time series models: a case study

Authors: Naba Krushna Sabat; Rashmiranjan Nayak; Harshit Srivastava; Umesh Chandra Pati; Santos Kumar Das

Addresses: Department of Electronics and Communication Engineering, National Institute of Technology Rourkela, Odisha, India ' Department of Electronics and Communication Engineering, National Institute of Technology Rourkela, Odisha, India ' Department of Electronics and Communication Engineering, National Institute of Technology Rourkela, Odisha, India ' Department of Electronics and Communication Engineering, National Institute of Technology Rourkela, Odisha, India ' Department of Electronics and Communication Engineering, National Institute of Technology Rourkela, Odisha, India

Abstract: Natural calamities are frequent nowadays due to global warming caused by the adverse impact created by unsustainable development and associated environmental pollution. Atmospheric weather is highly influenced by global warming. Hence, the present work predicts five important meteorological parameters responsible for weather conditions, such as temperature, humidity, pressure, wind speed, and wind direction of Bengaluru City, from the respective historical data available from January 2009 to January 2020, using statistical time series forecasting models. The comparative analysis of these statistical models shows that the vector auto-regressive moving average model outperforms other models in predicting all the above mentioned parameters.

Keywords: univariate and multivariate time series prediction; statistical time series forecasting models; ARIMA model; SARIMA model; prophet model; VAR model; VMA model; VARMA model.

DOI: 10.1504/IJGW.2023.133547

International Journal of Global Warming, 2023 Vol.31 No.1, pp.128 - 149

Received: 29 Oct 2022
Received in revised form: 05 Apr 2023
Accepted: 07 Apr 2023
Published online: 20 Sep 2023 *

Full-text access for editors Full-text access for subscribers Purchase this article Comment on this article