Title: Block level annual and seasonal rainfall changes over Indian Sundarbans during 1901-2100

Authors: Manish Kumar Naskar; Javed Akhter; Lalu Das

Addresses: Department of Agricultural Meteorology and Physics, Bidhan Chandra Krishi Viswavidyalaya, Mohanpur, India ' Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Calcutta, Kolkata, India ' Department of Agricultural Meteorology and Physics, Bidhan Chandra Krishi Viswavidyalaya, Mohanpur, India

Abstract: Present study has analysed historical (1901-2005) and future (2006-2100) rainfall patterns over the Indian Sundarbans using observational data and multiple global climate models from CMIP5 experiment. Increasing trends of monsoon and annual rainfall along with decreasing trends in winter rainfall have been found over most of the blocks during historical period. CMIP5 RCP 4.5 and 8.5 based future projections also suggest an increase in monsoon (1-6.5 mm/year) and annual rainfall (1.7-8.9 mm/year) by the end of the 21st century. However, RCP 8.5 scenarios indicate a decline in winter rainfall (0.02-0.3 mm/year) which may further amplify the salinity problem of this region.

Keywords: Sundarbans' rainfall; global climate models; GCMs; CMIP5; representative concentration pathway; RCP; India.

DOI: 10.1504/IJGW.2023.133985

International Journal of Global Warming, 2023 Vol.31 No.2, pp.222 - 241

Received: 15 Jul 2022
Received in revised form: 13 Mar 2023
Accepted: 16 Mar 2023
Published online: 09 Oct 2023 *

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